reference-quality-thresholds.json

{
  "version": "1.2.0",
  "description": "Per-artifact minimum line-count floors used by scripts/validate-analysis-completeness.js to enforce Rule 22 (Per-Artifact Depth Floors) of analysis/methodologies/ai-driven-analysis-guide.md. Values are derived from the Run 184 reference benchmark (analysis/daily/2026-04-18/breaking-run184/) minus a 10% tolerance, rounded down to the nearest 5 lines. A file below its threshold MUST trigger Pass 2; it MUST NOT be shipped with a note. When an articleType × relativePath entry is absent the validator falls back to the CLI --min-lines flag (DEFAULT_MIN_LINES = 30). When a per-artifact entry is present the effective floor is max(perArtifact, --min-lines), so --min-lines can raise but never lower a configured floor.",
  "schemaChangelog": {
    "1.2.0": "Additive: introduce thresholds for the four new long-horizon and electoral article types (quarter-ahead, quarter-in-review, year-ahead, year-in-review, term-outlook, election-cycle). Adds line floors for the eight new analysis artifacts (forward-projection, legislative-pipeline-forecast, parliamentary-calendar-projection, term-arc, seat-projection, mandate-fulfilment-scorecard, presidency-trio-context, commission-wp-alignment).",
    "1.1.0": "Additive: manifest.json now supports artifactSources record keyed by relativePath. Values are \"fresh\" or \"carry-forward-from:<runId>\". scripts/aggregator/prior-run-diff.js emits the prior-run merge plan; Stage B (workflow/agent) writes artifactSources to manifest.json from that plan when ENABLE_PRIOR_RUN_MERGE=true. Stage C validates all artifacts regardless of source value.",
    "1.0.0": "Initial release."
  },
  "tradecraftQualitySignals": {
    "note": "ADDITIVE quality signals — NOT enforced by the line-count validator. They represent content-quality expectations that Pass-2 reviewers must check manually. Every probabilistic artifact MUST also comply with osint-tradecraft-standards.md: (1) WEP band + time horizon on every headline judgement, (2) Admiralty grade on every external source, (3) confidence-in-evidence tracked separately from WEP probability, (4) >= 10 SATs applied per run (attested in methodology-reflection.md §12). Non-compliant artifacts trigger a Pass-2 rewrite even if the line-count floor is met.",
    "wepBandRequired": [
      "executive-brief.md",
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md",
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md",
      "intelligence/threat-model.md",
      "intelligence/cross-run-diff.md",
      "intelligence/political-threat-landscape.md",
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md",
      "extended/intelligence-assessment.md",
      "extended/devils-advocate-analysis.md",
      "extended/forward-indicators.md",
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md"
    ],
    "admiraltyGradeRequired": [
      "executive-brief.md",
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md",
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md",
      "intelligence/threat-model.md",
      "intelligence/cross-run-diff.md",
      "intelligence/political-threat-landscape.md",
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md",
      "extended/intelligence-assessment.md",
      "extended/devils-advocate-analysis.md",
      "extended/comparative-international.md",
      "extended/historical-parallels.md",
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md"
    ],
    "icd203BlufRequired": [
      "existing/deep-analysis.md"
    ],
    "satDocumentationRequired": [
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md"
    ]
  },
  "referenceBenchmark": {
    "runDir": "analysis/daily/2026-04-18/breaking-run184/",
    "runId": "184",
    "date": "2026-04-18"
  },
  "structuralRequirements": {
    "note": "Structural contracts enforced by scripts/validate-analysis-completeness.js. mermaidRequired = artifacts that MUST contain at least one Mermaid block (in addition to the directory-based default for intelligence/, classification/, risk-scoring/, threat-assessment/). readerBlockRequired = artifacts that MUST contain a Reader Briefing / 'For Citizens' / 'Plain Language' section. sourceDiversityRequired = artifacts that MUST cite at least one EP MCP tool reference OR carry an evidence table (markdown table with a Source / Evidence / Reference header column, e.g. a 'Data Sources & Provenance' block); the validator accepts either signal. requiredSections = artifact -> array of H2 substrings that MUST appear (case-insensitive substring match). Added 2026-04 alongside template v2.0 enrichment of impact-matrix, forces-analysis, actor-mapping, political-capital-risk, actor-threat-profiles, legislative-disruption, legislative-velocity-risk, consequence-trees. longHorizonScenarioGate = article types whose intelligence/scenario-forecast.md MUST contain >= 6 scenario headings (### Scenario N pattern); activated when electoralOverlay===true or scenarioMaxHorizonMonths>=36. Added 2026-05 alongside scenario-forecast.md template v1.3.",
    "longHorizonScenarioGate": {
      "articleTypes": ["term-outlook", "election-cycle"],
      "minScenarios": 6,
      "artifact": "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md",
      "note": "Enforced by scripts/validate-analysis-completeness.js countScenarios(). Counts all headings matching /^###\\s+Scenario\\s+[A-Za-z0-9]+(?:-[A-Za-z0-9]+)*\\s*[:—]/gm in the artifact (supports hyphenated IDs like A-24; underscores excluded). Activated for manifest.articleType values listed in articleTypes above."
    },
    "mermaidRequired": [
      "classification/impact-matrix.md",
      "classification/forces-analysis.md",
      "classification/actor-mapping.md",
      "risk-scoring/political-capital-risk.md",
      "risk-scoring/legislative-velocity-risk.md",
      "threat-assessment/actor-threat-profiles.md",
      "threat-assessment/legislative-disruption.md",
      "threat-assessment/consequence-trees.md"
    ],
    "readerBlockRequired": [
      "classification/impact-matrix.md",
      "classification/forces-analysis.md",
      "classification/actor-mapping.md",
      "risk-scoring/political-capital-risk.md",
      "risk-scoring/legislative-velocity-risk.md",
      "threat-assessment/actor-threat-profiles.md",
      "threat-assessment/legislative-disruption.md",
      "threat-assessment/consequence-trees.md"
    ],
    "sourceDiversityRequired": [
      "classification/impact-matrix.md",
      "classification/actor-mapping.md",
      "risk-scoring/political-capital-risk.md",
      "risk-scoring/legislative-velocity-risk.md",
      "threat-assessment/actor-threat-profiles.md",
      "threat-assessment/legislative-disruption.md",
      "threat-assessment/consequence-trees.md"
    ],
    "requiredSections": {
      "classification/impact-matrix.md": [
        "Event List",
        "Stakeholder",
        "Impact Matrix",
        "Heat",
        "Cascade",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ],
      "classification/forces-analysis.md": [
        "Issue Frame",
        "Driving Forces",
        "Restraining Forces",
        "Net Pressure",
        "Intervention Points",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ],
      "classification/actor-mapping.md": [
        "Actor Roster",
        "Influence",
        "Alliance",
        "Power Brokers",
        "Information",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ],
      "risk-scoring/political-capital-risk.md": [
        "Capital Table",
        "Capital Exposure",
        "Capital Flow",
        "Capital",
        "Bets",
        "Precedent",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ],
      "risk-scoring/legislative-velocity-risk.md": [
        "Pipeline Summary",
        "Throughput",
        "Stalled",
        "Deadline",
        "Bottleneck",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ],
      "threat-assessment/actor-threat-profiles.md": [
        "Actor Roster",
        "Capability",
        "Diamond",
        "Relationship",
        "Escalation",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ],
      "threat-assessment/legislative-disruption.md": [
        "Targeted",
        "Attack Tree",
        "Technique",
        "Detection",
        "Counter",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ],
      "threat-assessment/consequence-trees.md": [
        "Threat Roster",
        "Consequence Tree",
        "Convergence",
        "Intervention",
        "Reader Briefing"
      ]
    }
  },
  "thresholds": {
    "breaking": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 160,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 205,
      "intelligence/coalition-dynamics.md": 135,
      "intelligence/cross-run-diff.md": 100,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 185,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 190,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 385,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 250,
      "intelligence/political-threat-landscape.md": 90,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 280,
      "intelligence/significance-scoring.md": 105,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 305,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 250,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 275,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 190,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 150,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 140,
      "documents/document-analysis-index.md": 95,
      "classification/significance-classification.md": 105,
      "intelligence/voting-patterns.md": 150,
      "intelligence/workflow-audit.md": 100,
      "intelligence/cross-session-intelligence.md": 150,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 220,
      "extended/executive-brief.md": 180,
      "extended/devils-advocate-analysis.md": 250,
      "extended/historical-parallels.md": 220,
      "extended/coalition-mathematics.md": 200,
      "extended/forward-indicators.md": 180,
      "extended/intelligence-assessment.md": 220,
      "extended/implementation-feasibility.md": 200,
      "extended/media-framing-analysis.md": 180,
      "extended/comparative-international.md": 200,
      "extended/voter-segmentation.md": 200,
      "extended/cross-reference-map.md": 150,
      "extended/data-download-manifest.md": 160
    },
    "week-in-review": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 120,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 180,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 150,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 150,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 200,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 240,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 220,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 180,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 200,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 200,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 140,
      "intelligence/voting-patterns.md": 150,
      "intelligence/workflow-audit.md": 100,
      "intelligence/cross-session-intelligence.md": 150,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 120,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 120,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 180
    },
    "month-in-review": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 140,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 220,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 180,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 180,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 240,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 280,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 260,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 220,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 240,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 200,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 140,
      "intelligence/voting-patterns.md": 180,
      "intelligence/workflow-audit.md": 100,
      "intelligence/cross-session-intelligence.md": 220,
      "existing/deep-analysis.md": 300,
      "existing/session-baseline.md": 180,
      "intelligence/session-baseline.md": 180,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 140,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 140,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 200
    },
    "week-ahead": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 100,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 160,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 120,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 120,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 180,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 220,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 200,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 160,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 180,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 200,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 140,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 100,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 100,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 180
    },
    "month-ahead": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 120,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 180,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 140,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 140,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 200,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 240,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 220,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 180,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 200,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 200,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 140,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 120,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 120,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 180
    },
    "committee-reports": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 100,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 160,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 120,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 120,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 180,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 200,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 180,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 160,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 180,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 200,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 140,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 100,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 100,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 180
    },
    "motions": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 100,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 160,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 120,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 120,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 180,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 200,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 180,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 160,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 180,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 200,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 140,
      "intelligence/voting-patterns.md": 200,
      "intelligence/workflow-audit.md": 100,
      "intelligence/cross-session-intelligence.md": 220,
      "existing/deep-analysis.md": 400,
      "existing/session-baseline.md": 200,
      "intelligence/session-baseline.md": 200,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 100,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 100,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 200
    },
    "propositions": {
      "executive-brief.md": 180,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 100,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 160,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 120,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 120,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 180,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 200,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 180,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 160,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 180,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 200,
      "intelligence/reference-analysis-quality.md": 140,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 100,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 100,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 180
    },
    "quarter-ahead": {
      "executive-brief.md": 200,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 140,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 220,
      "intelligence/coalition-dynamics.md": 180,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 200,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 200,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 220,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 240,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 260,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 260,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 220,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 220,
      "intelligence/forward-projection.md": 280,
      "intelligence/legislative-pipeline-forecast.md": 220,
      "intelligence/parliamentary-calendar-projection.md": 200,
      "intelligence/presidency-trio-context.md": 180,
      "intelligence/commission-wp-alignment.md": 180,
      "extended/forward-indicators.md": 200,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 140,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 140,
      "classification/significance-classification.md": 100,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 200
    },
    "quarter-in-review": {
      "executive-brief.md": 200,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 140,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 220,
      "intelligence/coalition-dynamics.md": 180,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 200,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 200,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 220,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 240,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 260,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 200,
      "intelligence/voting-patterns.md": 220,
      "intelligence/legislative-pipeline-forecast.md": 200,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 140,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 140,
      "classification/significance-classification.md": 100,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 200
    },
    "year-ahead": {
      "executive-brief.md": 220,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 160,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 260,
      "intelligence/coalition-dynamics.md": 200,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 240,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 240,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 240,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 280,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 320,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 300,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 260,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 260,
      "intelligence/forward-projection.md": 340,
      "intelligence/legislative-pipeline-forecast.md": 260,
      "intelligence/parliamentary-calendar-projection.md": 240,
      "intelligence/presidency-trio-context.md": 220,
      "intelligence/commission-wp-alignment.md": 220,
      "extended/forward-indicators.md": 240,
      "extended/historical-parallels.md": 200,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 160,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 160,
      "classification/significance-classification.md": 120,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 220
    },
    "year-in-review": {
      "executive-brief.md": 220,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 160,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 280,
      "intelligence/coalition-dynamics.md": 240,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 260,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 240,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 240,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 280,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 300,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 240,
      "intelligence/voting-patterns.md": 280,
      "intelligence/term-arc.md": 280,
      "intelligence/mandate-fulfilment-scorecard.md": 320,
      "intelligence/legislative-pipeline-forecast.md": 240,
      "intelligence/presidency-trio-context.md": 220,
      "intelligence/commission-wp-alignment.md": 220,
      "extended/historical-parallels.md": 220,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 160,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 160,
      "classification/significance-classification.md": 120,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 220
    },
    "term-outlook": {
      "executive-brief.md": 220,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 160,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 280,
      "intelligence/coalition-dynamics.md": 240,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 240,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 240,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 240,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 280,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 360,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 300,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 260,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 280,
      "intelligence/forward-projection.md": 360,
      "intelligence/term-arc.md": 320,
      "intelligence/seat-projection.md": 280,
      "intelligence/mandate-fulfilment-scorecard.md": 280,
      "intelligence/presidency-trio-context.md": 220,
      "intelligence/commission-wp-alignment.md": 220,
      "extended/forward-indicators.md": 260,
      "extended/historical-parallels.md": 240,
      "extended/comparative-international.md": 240,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 160,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 160,
      "classification/significance-classification.md": 120,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 240
    },
    "election-cycle": {
      "executive-brief.md": 240,
      "intelligence/analysis-index.md": 180,
      "intelligence/synthesis-summary.md": 320,
      "intelligence/coalition-dynamics.md": 280,
      "intelligence/economic-context.md": 260,
      "intelligence/historical-baseline.md": 280,
      "intelligence/mcp-reliability-audit.md": 240,
      "intelligence/pestle-analysis.md": 320,
      "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md": 400,
      "intelligence/stakeholder-map.md": 320,
      "intelligence/threat-model.md": 280,
      "intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md": 320,
      "intelligence/forward-projection.md": 400,
      "intelligence/term-arc.md": 360,
      "intelligence/seat-projection.md": 320,
      "intelligence/mandate-fulfilment-scorecard.md": 360,
      "intelligence/presidency-trio-context.md": 240,
      "intelligence/commission-wp-alignment.md": 240,
      "extended/forward-indicators.md": 280,
      "extended/historical-parallels.md": 280,
      "extended/comparative-international.md": 280,
      "risk-scoring/risk-matrix.md": 180,
      "risk-scoring/quantitative-swot.md": 180,
      "classification/significance-classification.md": 140,
      "intelligence/methodology-reflection.md": 260
    }
  }
}