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📊 Legislative Pipeline Forecast Template

Template Purpose: Per-procedure transit-time projection (committee → plenary → trilogue → adoption) with horizon-conditional probability of completion. Replaces the rapporteur-stage heuristic baked into monitor_legislative_pipeline with a Monte-Carlo prior over the trailing 24 months of stage-transition timings.

Methodology: forward-projection-methodology.md §5

Min Lines: 200 (quarter-in-review), 220 (quarter-ahead, year-in-review), 260 (year-ahead).

Required by: quarter-ahead, year-ahead, quarter-in-review, year-in-review. Optional for propositions.

📋 Header Block

# Legislative Pipeline Forecast — {Article-Type Slug} — {Run Date}

**Classification:** PUBLIC
**Horizon:** {next 90 days | next 12 months | trailing 90 days}
**Active Procedures Tracked:** {N}
**Reference Window for Prior:** {trailing 24 months — date range}
**Transit-Model Source:** {heuristic stage-timing prior — Stage B agent reasoning over trailing 24-month transitions; a probabilistic `scripts/aggregator/pipeline-transit-model.js` is planned for a later slicing-plan PR}

🎯 Section 1 — Pipeline Snapshot

Mermaid block depicting current stage occupancy:

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sankey-beta
    Committee,Plenary,12
    Plenary,Trilogue,8
    Trilogue,Adoption,4
    Committee,Withdrawn,1
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📈 Section 2 — Active Procedure Forecast Table

For every active procedure (≥ N rows; one row per procedure):

| Procedure ID | Title (short) | Current stage | P10 transit | P50 transit | P90 transit | P(complete by horizon) | Bottleneck stage | WEP band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/0001(COD) | … | trilogue | 14 days | 35 days | 92 days | 70% | trilogue | Likely |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |

P10/P50/P90 come from the trailing-24-month transit-time distribution per stage and procedure type. P(complete by horizon) is the cumulative probability that the remaining stages finish before horizon end.

🚧 Section 3 — Bottleneck Analysis

For the top-3 bottleneck stages by variance, document:

### Bottleneck — {stage}

- **Trailing-24m P50 transit:** {days}
- **Variance vs prior 24 months:** {% change}
- **Plausible drivers:** {Council Trio handover, rapporteur change, summer recess, …}
- **Mitigation signals:** {extraordinary plenary, fast-track procedure, …}

📅 Section 4 — Horizon-Bound Completion Heatmap

Mermaid heatmap (or rendered table) of P(complete) across active procedures × horizon checkpoints (T+30, T+60, T+90, T+12m where applicable).

| Procedure | T+30 | T+60 | T+90 | T+180 | T+12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/0001(COD) | 5% | 25% | 70% | 92% | 99% |
| … | … | … | … | … | … |

🔁 Section 5 — Cross-Run Diff

Compare against the last legislative-pipeline-forecast.md run's P50/P90 to detect drift. Stage C 🟡-warns when ≥ 30% of tracked procedures show > 50% drift in P(complete) without an explanatory event.

| Procedure | Prior run P(complete by horizon) | This run | Δ | Plausible cause |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/0001(COD) | 50% | 70% | +20 | trilogue concluded last week |

🧮 Section 6 — Reference-Class Anchors

Links each forecast row to the analogue cohort used to compute its prior:

| Procedure type | Reference cohort | Sample size | P50 transit (cohort) |
|---|---|---|---|
| COD ordinary | All COD trilogues 2024–2026 | N=… | … days |
| BUD annual | Annual budget trilogues 2019–2025 | N=7 | … days |
| INI own-init | All INI 2024–2026 | N=… | … days |

⚠️ Section 7 — Risk Annotations

For each high-stakes procedure, attach a one-line WEP-banded risk note (from risk-matrix.md):

| Procedure | Risk | Likelihood × Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/0042(COD) | Trilogue collapse | Likely × High | Council Trio handover mid-cycle |

📝 Section 8 — Pass-2 Quality Self-Audit

- [ ] Every active procedure has P10/P50/P90 cited
- [ ] Bottleneck section names ≥ 3 stages with variance
- [ ] Cross-run diff covers ≥ 80% of carry-over procedures
- [ ] Reference-class cohort is named for every procedure type
- [ ] Risk annotations cite WEP band

⚙️ Section 9 — Methodology Compliance

Note any procedures excluded from the model (e.g. < 3 trailing analogues — fall back to rapporteur-stage heuristic and flag).