Hack23 · pethers · May 21, 2026 · May 21, 2026 · May 21, 2026 · May 21, 2026
@@ -101,25 +101,29 @@ Produced in `analysis/daily/$ARTICLE_DATE/$SUBFOLDER/`. The output set is **stab
 
 > **Filename variants** — canonical `stakeholder-perspectives.md` ← template `stakeholder-impact.md`; canonical `classification-results.md` ← template `political-classification.md`; `comparative-international.md` ↔ `international-comparative.md`; `historical-parallels.md` ↔ `historical-baseline.md`; `election-2026-analysis.md` ↔ `election-cycle-analysis.md` ↔ `election-2026-implications.md` (all three map to the same cycle-parameterised template); `cycle-trajectory.md` and `parliamentary-season.md` are separate Family-D supplementary long-horizon tracking artifacts; `horizon-pir-rollforward.md` (supplementary — PIR carry-forward across horizon bands). For the general filename-variant rules, see [`ai-driven-analysis-guide.md` §Filename variants](../../analysis/methodologies/ai-driven-analysis-guide.md#-filename-variants-all-map-to-one-template--one-methodology-section); this prompt additionally accepts `election-cycle-analysis.md` as a local alias for the same election-cycle artifact.
 
+## File-write contract (point-of-use reminder)
+
+> 🛠 **All 23 artifacts on this page use the `edit` tool** — Pass 1 creates, Pass 2 read-back-and-improves, improvement-mode extensions, `pass1/` snapshot copies (`cp` is fine), `documents/{dok_id}-analysis.md`, and `## Re-run delta` appends in `methodology-reflection.md`. Tier-2 fallback (`cat <<'EOF_RAW' > file`) is acceptable only when `edit` has failed for non-content-shape reasons and the content is pure ASCII without code fences / Mermaid / `$` / backticks / `EOF` markers. Mermaid blocks, `ö ä å`, RTL/CJK characters, and non-trivial YAML/JSON sidecars ⇒ `edit` only. Banned for file writes: `python3`, `node -e`, `sed -i`, `echo … > file`, `tee file`, unquoted heredocs (`<<EOF`). See [`01-bash-and-shell-safety.md` §File creation & overwrite strategy](01-bash-and-shell-safety.md) for the full hierarchy.
+
 ## Execution order
 
-> **Improvement-mode path** (when `IMPROVEMENT_MODE=true` from `03-data-download.md §Pre-flight`): **do not skip**, **do not no-op**. The 23 artifacts already exist on disk — your job is to **extend and improve** them, not regenerate them from scratch. Replace step 3 (Pass 1 — Create) with step 3′ below; steps 1, 2, 4, 5 still run normally. The aggregate+render step in module 06 is **always executed** — `article.md` and `news/*.html` are regenerated on every run.
+> **Improvement-mode path** (when `IMPROVEMENT_MODE=true` from `03-data-download.md §Pre-flight`): extend the existing 23 artifacts; do not regenerate from scratch and do not no-op. Replace step 3 (Pass 1 — Create) with step 3′ below; steps 1, 2, 4, 5 run normally. Module 06 aggregate+render is **always executed** — `article.md` and `news/*.html` are regenerated every run.
 >
 > **3′ — Improvement Pass (replaces Pass 1 — Create)**:
 >
-> 1. **Read every existing artifact in full** (one tool call per file, including `documents/*-analysis.md`).
-> 2. **Re-run the download/discovery only** to identify new `dok_id`s, fresher `get_voteringar` results, new committee schedule entries, or updated regering.se / SCB / IMF / Statskontoret context. At this stage, do **not** append to artifacts, do **not** update `data-download-manifest.md`, and do **not** create any new `documents/{dok_id}-analysis.md` files yet — just capture what must be updated after the baseline snapshot in step 4 below.
-> 3. **Prepare the extension plan only** (no writes yet): determine which artifacts need changes, which new evidence rows must be added, which time-sensitive sections must be refreshed (forward indicators, scenario probabilities, coalition mathematics, election-2026 deltas), which `[unconfirmed]` flags can now be closed with ≥ 3 sources, which Key Judgments must be sharpened, and what `## Re-run delta` notes will be appended to `methodology-reflection.md` after the baseline snapshot.
-> 4. **Never delete** prior analysis content unless it is factually wrong; correct in place and note the correction.
-> 5. **Apply the planned extensions only after step 4 below** has snapshotted the pre-improvement baseline into `pass1/`. Concretely: after the snapshot, append new entries to `data-download-manifest.md` under a new `## Re-run YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC` heading, create `documents/{dok_id}-analysis.md` for each new document, extend each existing artifact, and append a `## Re-run delta` subsection to `methodology-reflection.md` documenting what changed and why.
-> 6. **Floor**: at least 8 minutes of real read/review-and-extend work across the artifact set on a `standard` improvement re-run, 12 minutes on `deep`, 15 minutes on `comprehensive`. Improvement-mode runs that produce zero artifact changes are a quality failure — there is **always** something to extend after the baseline snapshot (newer voting outcomes, new dok_ids, sharper uncertainty disclosure, fresher economic vintage, new media frames).
+> 1. Read every existing artifact in full (one tool call per file, including `documents/*-analysis.md`).
+> 2. Re-run download/discovery to identify new `dok_id`s, fresher `get_voteringar` results, new committee schedule entries, updated regering.se / SCB / IMF / Statskontoret context. Capture only — at this stage no artifact writes, no `data-download-manifest.md` updates, no new `documents/{dok_id}-analysis.md` files.
+> 3. Prepare the extension plan (no writes yet): which artifacts need changes, which new evidence rows, which time-sensitive sections to refresh (forward indicators, scenario probabilities, coalition mathematics, election-2026 deltas), which `[unconfirmed]` flags can close with ≥ 3 sources, which Key Judgments to sharpen, what `## Re-run delta` notes to append.
+> 4. Correct prior content in place when factually wrong; preserve and note the correction. Deletion is reserved for factual errors only.
+> 5. After step 4 below snapshots the baseline into `pass1/`, apply the plan: append new entries to `data-download-manifest.md` under a `## Re-run YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC` heading, create `documents/{dok_id}-analysis.md` for each new document, extend each existing artifact, append a `## Re-run delta` subsection to `methodology-reflection.md` documenting what changed and why.
+> 6. **Floor**: ≥ 8 min real extend work on `standard`, 12 min on `deep`, 15 min on `comprehensive`. Zero-change improvement runs are a quality failure — newer voting outcomes, new dok_ids, sharper uncertainty disclosure, fresher economic vintage, new media frames are always available.
 >
-> Pass 2 (step 5 below) is still mandatory in improvement-mode and applies to every artifact, including the unchanged ones (read them, decide whether last run's improvement still holds).
+> Pass 2 (step 5 below) runs in improvement-mode too — read every artifact including unchanged ones and decide whether last run's improvement still holds.
 
 1. **Read all relevant methodologies first** (the primary methodology guide plus every supporting framework listed above, including `osint-tradecraft-standards.md`; one tool call per file; skipping fails the gate via `methodology-reflection.md §evidence` audit).
 2. **Read all 23 templates first** — at minimum open each Family A/B/C/D template before writing its artifact.
 3. **Pass 1 — Create** all 23 always-on artifacts + every per-document file. Minimum 20 minutes of real work. *(Improvement-mode replaces this with step 3′ above.)*
-4. **Snapshot Pass-1** — copy every Pass-1 file into `$ANALYSIS_DIR/pass1/` before starting Pass 2: `mkdir -p "$ANALYSIS_DIR/pass1" && cp "$ANALYSIS_DIR"/*.md "$ANALYSIS_DIR/pass1/"`. The `pass1/` directory is the fallback evidence the gate uses when mtime windows are too tight. Do **not** stage `pass1/` in the PR (see `07-commit-and-pr.md`). *(Improvement-mode: take this snapshot **before** making any write/extend changes from step 3′ — until this snapshot exists, treat step 3′ as read/download/planning only and apply extensions only after step 4. Do not assume `pass1/` or its `.md` files are already present from the prior run; the broadened router (`03-data-download.md §Pre-flight`) may enter improvement-mode from a minimal carry-forward such as only `synthesis-summary.md`. The `mkdir -p` keeps the command valid in both cases. The snapshot overwrites any earlier baseline; the gate only needs the most recent pre-improvement copy for Pass-2 delta checks.)*
+4. **Snapshot Pass-1** — copy every Pass-1 file into `$ANALYSIS_DIR/pass1/` before starting Pass 2: `mkdir -p "$ANALYSIS_DIR/pass1" && cp "$ANALYSIS_DIR"/*.md "$ANALYSIS_DIR/pass1/"`. The `pass1/` directory is the fallback evidence the gate uses when mtime windows are too tight. Exclude `pass1/` from the PR (see `07-commit-and-pr.md`). *(Improvement-mode: take this snapshot **before** any write/extend changes from step 3′. Until the snapshot exists, step 3′ stays read/download/planning-only. The broadened router (`03-data-download.md §Pre-flight`) may enter improvement-mode from a minimal carry-forward such as only `synthesis-summary.md`, so `mkdir -p` keeps the command valid in both cases. The snapshot overwrites earlier baselines — the gate only needs the most recent pre-improvement copy for Pass-2 delta checks.)*
 5. **Pass 2 — Improve**: read every Pass-1 file back in full and strengthen evidence, diagrams, cross-references, stakeholder coverage, uncertainty disclosure, Admiralty annotations, WEP language, PIR/EEI tags. Minimum 10 minutes.
 6. **Pass-2 declaration (mandatory, fail-loud contract)** — append/update `methodology-reflection.md` with a single canonical status line before running the gate: `Pass-2 status: executed in full`. If Pass 2 cannot be completed in full by the minute-42 PR window, do **not** proceed as a normal success path; treat it as an explicit gate failure and document the failure in the same file (no silent "not executed in full" acceptance).
 

@@ -419,11 +419,11 @@ Exit code 0 = pass, non-zero = fail with per-check report. Precondition for chec
 
 ## Re-run / deduplication note
 
-Same-day re-runs are **improvement runs** (not skip runs) when `03-data-download.md §Pre-flight` detects a reusable baseline (all 23 artifacts present **or** at least `synthesis-summary.md` on disk) and sets `IMPROVEMENT_MODE=true`. Existing rendered HTML under `news/` does **not** establish improvement mode — the router keys off analysis baselines, not HTML. On improvement runs, the pipeline runs in extend-and-improve mode (`04-analysis-pipeline.md §Execution order`), the gate runs normally, and `06-article-generation.md` **always** regenerates `article.md` + `news/$ARTICLE_DATE-$SUBFOLDER-{en,sv,da,no,fi,de,fr,es,nl,ar,he,ja,ko,zh}.html` (all 14 languages via the localized executive-brief cascade — see `TRANSLATION_GUIDE.md §News articles are translated out-of-band`). **Per-language Markdown `article.<lang>.md` files MUST NOT be produced** on improvement runs — they are rejected by `scripts/validate-file-ownership.ts` (forbidden artefact, see `06-article-generation.md §Step 2`). There is still exactly one PR call. **Never** call `safeoutputs___noop` because today's HTML "already exists" — existing HTML is a reason to regenerate, not to exit early.
+Same-day re-runs are **improvement runs** when `03-data-download.md §Pre-flight` detects a reusable baseline (all 23 artifacts present **or** at least `synthesis-summary.md` on disk) and sets `IMPROVEMENT_MODE=true`. The router keys off analysis baselines, not rendered HTML. On improvement runs the pipeline runs in extend-and-improve mode (`04-analysis-pipeline.md §Execution order`), the gate runs normally, and `06-article-generation.md` always regenerates `article.md` + `news/$ARTICLE_DATE-$SUBFOLDER-{en,sv,da,no,fi,de,fr,es,nl,ar,he,ja,ko,zh}.html` (all 14 languages via the localized executive-brief cascade). Per-language `article.<lang>.md` files are forbidden artefacts — `scripts/validate-file-ownership.ts` rejects them (see `06-article-generation.md §Step 2`). One PR call per run. Existing HTML is a reason to regenerate, never to call `safeoutputs___noop`.
 
 ### Check 12 ordering note
 
-Check 12 (`scripts/validate-article.ts`) is the **editorial QA gate** on aggregated `article.md`. The blocking branch in §Implementation only fires when `article.md` is on disk; the inline gate runs before aggregation, so on first pass the validator is **informational** (logs `ℹ️ Check 12 (editorial QA): … skipped (run after aggregator)`). Workflows MUST re-invoke the gate (or call `npx tsx scripts/validate-article.ts $ANALYSIS_DIR/article.md` directly) **after** `scripts/aggregate-analysis.ts` writes `article.md`. See `06-article-generation.md §Step 1b — Editorial QA re-check (post-aggregation)`.
+Check 12 (`scripts/validate-article.ts`) is the editorial QA gate on aggregated `article.md`. The blocking branch in §Implementation only fires when `article.md` is on disk; on first pass the validator logs `ℹ️ Check 12 (editorial QA): … skipped (run after aggregator)`. Re-invoke the gate (or `npx tsx scripts/validate-article.ts $ANALYSIS_DIR/article.md`) **after** `scripts/aggregate-analysis.ts` writes `article.md`. See `06-article-generation.md §Step 1b — Editorial QA re-check (post-aggregation)`.
 
 ## Supplementary checks
 
@@ -441,7 +441,7 @@ Non-blocking for `standard` / `deep` runs; **blocking for `comprehensive` / Tier
 
 Methodology §links: [`per-artifact-methodologies.md`](../../analysis/methodologies/per-artifact-methodologies.md) (anchors: `#analysis-index`, `#reference-analysis-quality`, `#mcp-reliability-audit`, `#workflow-audit`, `#cross-run-diff`, `#cross-session-intelligence`, `#session-baseline`).
 
-Inline bash probe — append after `FAIL=0` bookkeeping. Three independent blocking triggers: **aggregation article types** (`weekly-review`/`monthly-review`) require aggregation artifacts; **`comprehensive` tier** requires the Tier-C supplementary set; **`cross-run-diff.md`** is blocking whenever `ANALYSIS_RUN_COUNT ≥ 2` (any tier). `ARTICLE_TYPE` encodes the workflow family; `ANALYSIS_TIER` encodes the depth tier (`standard` | `deep` | `comprehensive`); `ANALYSIS_RUN_COUNT` is the numeric count of runs for the same cycle (unset/non-numeric → `1`).
+Inline bash probe — append after `FAIL=0` bookkeeping. Three blocking triggers: aggregation types (`weekly-review`/`monthly-review`), `comprehensive` tier, and `cross-run-diff.md` whenever `ANALYSIS_RUN_COUNT ≥ 2`. `ARTICLE_TYPE` encodes the workflow family; `ANALYSIS_TIER` encodes the depth tier (`standard` | `deep` | `comprehensive`); `ANALYSIS_RUN_COUNT` is the numeric run count for the same cycle (unset/non-numeric → `1`).
 
 ```bash
 # Check 11 — supplementary artifacts (blocking for aggregation types, Tier-C, and S5 when run-count >= 2)