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Can you explain this bit "422 error and as such had a fork" more?
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When bors fails to push with a 422 error (e.g., rust-lang/rust#91279 (comment)), which really shouldn't happen but isn't fixed yet -- see rust-lang/homu#75 for the issue tracking that bug -- we end up in a state where triagebot + rustc-perf effectively believe a commit has landed on master, but that commit hasn't actually landed. This is because triagebot looks for comments like this one rust-lang/rust#91279 (comment) when discovering new rustc master commits, not actually a push to the master branch on rust-lang/rust. (Plausible that this could get fixed alongside rust-lang/triagebot#1483).
The net effect is that we end up in a situation where this not-actually-on-master commit is believed to be, which means that when the next commit does land to rust-lang/rust master, we have a fork in the otherwise linear history of bors merges from triagebot's perspective, which means that next_commit stops working correctly on the rustc-perf side (there's two next commits, probably we choose a semi-random one?).