[Look-Ahead §5] scenario-forecast long-horizon-mode + forward-indicators multi-horizon decay

.github/prompts/11-forward-projection.md

@@ -67,13 +67,22 @@ Read every artifact word-by-word. Apply the AI-First Quality Principle
 For `term-outlook` and `election-cycle` (where
 `SCENARIO_MAX_MONTHS ≥ 36`), [`scenario-forecast.md`](../../analysis/templates/scenario-forecast.md)
 opens its long-horizon-mode header — see
-[`strategic-extensions-methodology.md`](../../analysis/methodologies/strategic-extensions-methodology.md)
-for the appendix. ≥ 6 scenarios are mandatory, including at least one
-regime-change branch when any tripwire from §2 is armed.
+[`scenario-forecast.md §0`](../../analysis/templates/scenario-forecast.md#0️⃣-long-horizon-mode)
+for the full specification. Key requirements in long-horizon mode:
+
+- **≥ 6 scenarios** are mandatory (enforced by Stage-C validator on `term-outlook`/`election-cycle`).
+- Mandatory **EP-election outcome branch** with three sub-paths: centre-right majority, centre-left majority, fragmented coalition.
+- Mandatory **regime-change branch**; use tripwires from §2 to define and monitor the branch.
+- At least **2 wildcard/black-swan branches**.
+- Per-scenario WEP confidence band **drawn from the decay table** at [`forward-projection-methodology.md §3`](../../analysis/methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table) — this is the **single source of truth** for horizon-conditional WEP numbers; do not copy the table into `scenario-forecast.md`.
+
+**Forward indicators in long-horizon mode:** [`forward-indicators.md`](../../analysis/templates/forward-indicators.md) includes a **Multi-Horizon Decay Table** (§Multi-Horizon Decay Table) that maps every indicator type to the horizons at which it retains predictive signal. Ensure every indicator card carries a `**Horizons:**` tag so monitoring plans retire indicators at their decay horizon. Canonical WEP decay numbers are in [`forward-projection-methodology.md §3`](../../analysis/methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table) — `forward-indicators.md` references but does not duplicate them.
 
 ## 6 · Cross-References
 
-- [`forward-projection-methodology.md`](../../analysis/methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md) — protocol authority.
+- [`forward-projection-methodology.md`](../../analysis/methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md) — **protocol authority and canonical WEP decay table (§3)**.
+- [`scenario-forecast.md §0`](../../analysis/templates/scenario-forecast.md#0️⃣-long-horizon-mode) — long-horizon-mode specification.
+- [`forward-indicators.md §Multi-Horizon Decay Table`](../../analysis/templates/forward-indicators.md#-multi-horizon-decay-table) — horizon tags per indicator type.
 - [`02-analysis-protocol.md`](02-analysis-protocol.md) — 2-pass iterative improvement.
 - [`03-analysis-completeness-gate.md`](03-analysis-completeness-gate.md) — Stage-C gate definition.
 - [`04-article-generation.md`](04-article-generation.md) — how the artifacts in §1 land in the rendered article.

analysis/methodologies/reference-quality-thresholds.json

@@ -48,7 +48,13 @@
     "date": "2026-04-18"
   },
   "structuralRequirements": {
-    "note": "Structural contracts enforced by scripts/validate-analysis-completeness.js. mermaidRequired = artifacts that MUST contain at least one Mermaid block (in addition to the directory-based default for intelligence/, classification/, risk-scoring/, threat-assessment/). readerBlockRequired = artifacts that MUST contain a Reader Briefing / 'For Citizens' / 'Plain Language' section. sourceDiversityRequired = artifacts that MUST cite at least one EP MCP tool reference OR carry an evidence table (markdown table with a Source / Evidence / Reference header column, e.g. a 'Data Sources & Provenance' block); the validator accepts either signal. requiredSections = artifact -> array of H2 substrings that MUST appear (case-insensitive substring match). Added 2026-04 alongside template v2.0 enrichment of impact-matrix, forces-analysis, actor-mapping, political-capital-risk, actor-threat-profiles, legislative-disruption, legislative-velocity-risk, consequence-trees.",
+    "note": "Structural contracts enforced by scripts/validate-analysis-completeness.js. mermaidRequired = artifacts that MUST contain at least one Mermaid block (in addition to the directory-based default for intelligence/, classification/, risk-scoring/, threat-assessment/). readerBlockRequired = artifacts that MUST contain a Reader Briefing / 'For Citizens' / 'Plain Language' section. sourceDiversityRequired = artifacts that MUST cite at least one EP MCP tool reference OR carry an evidence table (markdown table with a Source / Evidence / Reference header column, e.g. a 'Data Sources & Provenance' block); the validator accepts either signal. requiredSections = artifact -> array of H2 substrings that MUST appear (case-insensitive substring match). Added 2026-04 alongside template v2.0 enrichment of impact-matrix, forces-analysis, actor-mapping, political-capital-risk, actor-threat-profiles, legislative-disruption, legislative-velocity-risk, consequence-trees. longHorizonScenarioGate = article types whose intelligence/scenario-forecast.md MUST contain >= 6 scenario headings (### Scenario N pattern); activated when electoralOverlay===true or scenarioMaxHorizonMonths>=36. Added 2026-05 alongside scenario-forecast.md template v1.3.",
+    "longHorizonScenarioGate": {
+      "articleTypes": ["term-outlook", "election-cycle"],
+      "minScenarios": 6,
+      "artifact": "intelligence/scenario-forecast.md",
+      "note": "Enforced by scripts/validate-analysis-completeness.js countScenarios(). Counts all headings matching /^###\\s+Scenario\\s+[A-Za-z0-9]+(?:-[A-Za-z0-9]+)*\\s*[:—]/gm in the artifact (supports hyphenated IDs like A-24; underscores excluded). Activated for manifest.articleType values listed in articleTypes above."
+    },
     "mermaidRequired": [
       "classification/impact-matrix.md",
       "classification/forces-analysis.md",

analysis/templates/forward-indicators.md

@@ -11,6 +11,49 @@
 
 ---
 
+## 🕐 Multi-Horizon Decay Table
+
+**Canonical decay numbers live in [`forward-projection-methodology.md §3`](../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table).** The table below shows *which indicator types remain predictively useful at each horizon* — it does NOT replicate WEP probability values. Always read `forward-projection-methodology.md §3` as the authoritative source for the numbers themselves.
+
+Each indicator is tagged with the horizons at which it retains meaningful predictive signal (`✅ active`) vs. the horizons where it has decayed beyond utility (`⬜ decayed`).
+
+```markdown
+## Multi-Horizon Decay Table
+
+> WEP decay values are sourced from: [forward-projection-methodology.md §3](../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table).
+> Do NOT duplicate or override those numbers here.
+
+| Indicator Type | Example | T+7d | T+30d | T+90d | T+12m | T+term-end | T+EP-election |
+|---|---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
+| **Procedural / calendar** | Committee vote date, rapporteur deadline, trilogue round | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
+| **Coalition cohesion** | EPP/S&D alignment rate on roll-call votes | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
+| **Legislative pipeline** | Procedure stage, report adoption, trilogue conclusion | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
+| **Policy-position shift** | MEP speech-content pivot, amendment filing pattern | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
+| **National-government change** | Election results, coalition formation in MS | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
+| **Macro-economic signal** | IMF WEO growth revision, fiscal-deficit threshold | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
+| **EP-group composition drift** | Defection rate, new-member absorption pace | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
+| **Presidential/Commission cycle** | Commission WP priorities, DG-level reshuffles | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
+| **Electoral/polling signal** | Eurobarometer party-preference trend, national polling | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
+| **Spitzenkandidaten declared** | Lead-candidate announcement, party-congress endorsement | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
+| **Seat-projection model** | EP seat arithmetic based on national polls | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ |
+| **Treaty-revision / IGC signal** | IGC announcement, Art. 48 TEU trigger | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ | ✅ | ✅ |
+
+**Legend:** ✅ active (indicator retains predictive signal) | ⬜ decayed (signal below useful threshold at this horizon)
+```
+
+### Per-indicator horizon tagging
+
+When populating Section 3 (Indicator Detail Cards), **tag every indicator** with its active horizons using the `**Horizons:**` field (see card template in §3). This allows monitoring plans to silently retire indicators at their decay horizon rather than reporting stale signals.
+
+**Horizon tag examples:**
+- `rapporteur-deadline` → horizons: `7d / 30d`
+- `EPP-S&D alignment rate` → horizons: `7d / 30d / 90d`
+- `Spitzenkandidaten declared candidates` → horizons: `12m / term-end / EP-election`
+- `Eurobarometer party-preference trend` → horizons: `12m / term-end / EP-election`
+- `National-government election result` → horizons: `30d / 90d / 12m / term-end / EP-election`
+
+---
+
 ## 📋 Header Block
 
 ```markdown
@@ -42,7 +85,7 @@
 
 ## 📊 Section 2 — Indicator Master Table
 
-**Required:** ≥10 indicators with all 7 structure fields.
+**Required:** ≥10 indicators with all 8 structure fields.
 
 ```markdown
 ## Indicator Inventory
@@ -72,6 +115,9 @@
 
 **Category:** Political | Institutional | Policy | Electoral | External | Crisis
 
+**Horizons:** {comma-separated list from: 7d / 30d / 90d / 12m / term-end / EP-election}
+*(See Multi-Horizon Decay Table above for decay rules; canonical WEP bands per horizon in [forward-projection-methodology.md §3](../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table))*
+
 **Description:** {What this indicator measures and why it matters}
 
 **Current State:**
@@ -243,15 +289,24 @@ graph TB
 ## ✅ Quality Checklist
 
 - [ ] ≥10 indicators defined
-- [ ] Each indicator has all 7 structure fields
+- [ ] Each indicator has all 8 structure fields (including required `**Horizons:**` tag)
+- [ ] Multi-Horizon Decay Table present in §Multi-Horizon Decay Table
+- [ ] Every indicator has the `**Horizons:**` field populated with its active horizons (7d / 30d / 90d / 12m / term-end / EP-election)
 - [ ] Indicator categories balanced across Political/Institutional/Policy/Electoral/External/Crisis
 - [ ] Dashboard Mermaid shows all indicators with status
 - [ ] Scenario linkage explicit for each indicator
 - [ ] Alert protocol defined with escalation triggers
 - [ ] EP MCP tool mapping complete
 - [ ] Historical context provided for key indicators
 - [ ] Thresholds evidence-based, not arbitrary
+- [ ] WEP bands referenced from [`forward-projection-methodology.md §3`](../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table) — NOT duplicated here
+
+## 🔗 Cross-References
+
+- [`../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md §3`](../methodologies/forward-projection-methodology.md#3-wep-decay-table) — **canonical WEP decay table** and horizon lattice (single source of truth)
+- [`scenario-forecast.md §0`](scenario-forecast.md) — long-horizon mode requirements; EP-election branches that this indicator set must support
+- [`../methodologies/electoral-domain-methodology.md §Part 6`](../methodologies/electoral-domain-methodology.md#part-6--forward-indicators-forward-indicatorsmd) — full methodology for this artifact
 
 ---
 
-*Template version 1.0 — EU Parliament Monitor Forward Indicators*
+*Template version 1.1 — EU Parliament Monitor Forward Indicators*